Recently, in Rafha, Saudi Arabia, people cooked tea in lavender fields for leisure. Xinhua News Agency/AFP
Recently, with the historic handshake between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the "old enemies", mediated by China, a "wave of reconciliation" has been set off in the Middle East. No matter between Arab countries, or between Iran, Turkey and Arab countries, high-level visits have entered a frequent period, relations between countries have obviously improved, and a multipolar Middle East is emerging.
"Middle East welcomes reconciliation season"
"The Middle East welcomes the reconciliation season". According to the Gulf Times of the United Arab Emirates, there have been many encouraging reconciliation phenomena in the Middle East recently. After Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a joint statement in Beijing on March 10, agreeing to resume diplomatic relations, good news kept coming from the reconciliation between the two countries — — A number of Iranian media reported on March 19th that the Iranian Presidential Palace said that the King of Saudi Arabia invited Iranian President Leahy to pay an official visit to Saudi Arabia, and Leahy welcomed the invitation. Moreover, according to a report by the Saudi National News Agency on March 27th, Foreign Minister Shay agreed to hold a bilateral meeting during Ramadan to speed up the resumption of diplomatic work between the two countries.
The warming of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has led to the thawing of relations between Iran and other Arab countries. According to AFP and other media reports, on March 16th, Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, held talks with UAE President Mohammad in Abu Dhabi. According to sources, Iran and Bahrain are conducting important bilateral negotiations on restoring relations between the two countries without third-party mediation, and positive results will be announced soon.
Relations between Syria and other Arab countries are also heating up. According to Reuters’s report on March 23rd, after Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a landmark agreement, the contact between Saudi Arabia and Syria became stronger. The two governments are preparing to reopen their embassies after the Muslim festival Eid al-Fitr in late April. On March 19th, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived in Abu Dhabi and held "constructive" talks with UAE President Mohammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan. According to the Associated Press, the Arab League may resume Syria’s membership this year.
In addition, Turkish Foreign Minister cavusoglu met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Choucairy in Cairo on March 18th, which was the first time that Turkey sent a ministerial official to visit Egypt in more than 10 years. Moreover, with the easing of the regional situation, regional hot issues such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine and Israel have also ushered in opportunities for peace.
However, disharmony still exists. The US military claimed that after the base in Syria was attacked by drones, it carried out retaliatory air strikes against organizations "associated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" in Syria on the evening of March 23rd, which triggered another round of tit-for-tat strikes between the two sides, which aggravated the tension in eastern Syria. When asked about the news of the Saudi-Syrian reconciliation, a the State Council spokesman said that the United States "has not changed its position on the normalization of relations" with the Middle East countries, saying that it would not encourage other countries to normalize relations with the Bashar regime. Earlier, the State Council expressed "deep disappointment and anxiety" about the UAE’s hospitality to Bashar, stressing that the United States "will not lift the sanctions against Syria".
Major changes in the strategic pattern in the Middle East
The analysis generally points out that the historic handshake between Saudi Arabia and Iran has set off a new round of "reconciliation wave" in the Middle East, and its diffusion speed far exceeds expectations. The American Foreign Affairs magazine also pointed out that the Shay Beijing Agreement is a milestone and may reshape the relations between major powers in the Middle East. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger pointed out that the resumption of diplomatic relations between China and Shay is a major change in the strategic pattern of the Middle East. The US Foreign Affairs website believes that the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran may reshape the region and form a new order. The Israeli Jerusalem Post said frankly that the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran under the mediation of China marked the formation of a new Middle East.
"The Middle East ‘ Reconciliation tide ’ It is the result of internal and external factors. Since 2020, in addition to the fierce confrontation between Israel and Iran, there has been a trend of dialogue and relaxation among the four major forces of the Arab world, Israel, Iran and Turkey, as well as within the Arab world. " Sun Degang, a researcher at the Middle East Research Center of Fudan University, pointed out in an interview with this newspaper, "From the internal factors, sectarian conflicts in the Islamic world in the Middle East have consumed the hard power and soft power of all countries. As a result, all parties have not gained security, but have become more insecure. Seeking peace and development has become the common aspiration of most countries in the Middle East. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a wake-up call to the Middle East countries, that is, resorting to war and force will only lead to the Middle East countries becoming pawns and victims of great power competition. Countries in the Middle East must stand on their own national interests, adhere to strategic autonomy, seek common ground while reserving differences, stop bleeding in time, promote security through cooperation, and promote peace through development. From the external factors, the European and American powers withdrew from the Middle East, reducing the number of ‘ Proxy war ’ Will. Under the background of strategic competition among great powers, the efforts of foreign powers to arch fire and pour oil in the Middle East have weakened, creating a good external condition for reconciliation among countries in the Middle East. In particular, the emerging powers represented by China increased their mediation efforts in the Middle East, actively persuaded peace and promoted talks, and provided positive energy, which further promoted the Middle East country ‘ Reconciliation tide ’ 。”
In recent years, "seeking peace and development" has become the mainstream aspiration of countries in the Middle East. Pakistan’s "Forum Express" article said that people in the Middle East have realized that the actions of the United States in the region have caused decades of turmoil, and wars and conflicts will only further undermine regional stability. As Ezzat, executive director of the Egyptian Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an interview, the people in the Middle East have long suffered from war and long longed for peace. The British "Middle East Eye" news network and other media pointed out that the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic and the losses caused by it also made Middle East countries more pragmatic and began to give priority to interests-based agendas such as trade. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine makes the location advantage and the importance of oil and gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean more prominent, thus creating a positive atmosphere for Turkey, Israel and Egypt to reach a consensus.
"The Middle East ‘ Reconciliation tide ’ It is determined by the changes in the broader international situation. "Al Jazeera and other media pointed out that the United States continued to shift its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region, gradually changing its strategic focus in the Middle East and giving up its traditional commitment to Arab allies. This has led American Middle Eastern allies to gradually realize that Washington cannot be trusted, so they began to make efforts to diversify their security and military partners and implement more hedging strategies. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran want to join the BRICS cooperation mechanism, and Iran is already an observer of the SCO.
The American Wall Street Journal said that China’s successful mediation marked the beginning of a new era in the Middle East. The new reality is that at a time when the United States is paying more and more attention to Ukraine and Asia, the Middle East is trying to solve the past conflicts and tensions, and the past regional divisions are turning over.
How far reconciliation can go is still unknown.
At a time when the Middle East countries are accelerating reconciliation, the United States has carried out retaliatory air strikes against organizations in Syria, which has been condemned by Syria and Iran. The Associated Press mentioned that the incident may undermine the efforts made by all parties to ease tensions throughout the Middle East. Lebanon’s "Square TV" website wrote that although the United States claimed to retaliate, it was even more warning to Syria, Iran and regional countries, which undermined regional stability.
For a long time, the Middle East has been one of the most turbulent regions in the world. According to Qatar Al Jazeera, since the 21st century, the armed conflicts in this region have accounted for one third of the total armed conflicts in the world. At present, the reconciliation process in the Middle East countries gives people hope for peace in the region. However, the complex environment makes the reconciliation process full of variables.
"Since the end of World War II, conflict cycles and reconciliation cycles have alternately appeared in the Middle East, and the Middle East ‘ Reconciliation tide ’ It is also fragile. " Sun Degang analyzed and pointed out, "First, it is difficult to eliminate the barriers within the Islamic world in the Middle East in a short period of time, and the problem of trust deficit is outstanding. Second, the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and other countries and Iran and Syria is not what the United States and Israel want to see. Middle East ‘ Reconciliation tide ’ It is easily disturbed by external factors and emergencies, and even reversed. Third, there is still a long way to go for Middle East countries to turn peace deficit into development deficit and solve the increasingly serious problems such as debt, unemployment, food security, high prices and high inflation. Economic and people’s livelihood problems are not solved well, and the Middle East countries ‘ Reconciliation tide ’ I am afraid that I will be interrupted. "
The New York Times, Britain’s "Middle East Eye" news network and other media also believe that the sustainability of reconciliation among countries in the Middle East and the resilience of the process of normalization of relations remain to be seen. The international and regional situations that promote the accelerated reconciliation of countries in the region are prone to change, and there are also uncertainties within countries, so how far reconciliation can go is still unknown.
The analysis generally points out that it will take time for Middle East countries to form consensus and join forces. For the Middle East, a region with special geostrategic value, the United States and the West will not let go easily, but will probably try to undermine the process of regional reconciliation. As the British "Economist" reported, White House policymakers tried to tell their Middle East partners that the United States would not leave the region.
"The development of the situation in the Middle East requires the joint efforts of countries inside and outside the region to continue to promote the normalization of relations between countries in the Middle East, such as promoting the dialogue between different political factions in Yemen, restarting the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, promoting the normalization of relations between Morocco and Algeria, properly solving the Iranian nuclear issue, opening a political dialogue between Iran and Israel, and establishing a multilateral collective security dialogue mechanism in the Middle East." Sun Degang pointed out that "the Middle East problem is hard to return, but the gradual solution from easy to difficult is not only conducive to regional economic integration in the Middle East, but also provides new ideas for solving other hot issues in the world, such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict."