标签： 上海水磨

　　On April 17th, last week, two important economic figures in the United States, CPI and PPI, showed that inflation was continuing to cool down, which boosted market sentiment, and US stocks recorded cumulative gains throughout the week. However, Friday’s retail sales data fell more than expected, indicating that the momentum of US economic growth has weakened, and the market is evaluating the risk of recession trading. And the next earnings season will also bring more tests to investors.

　　Some analysts pointed out that the biggest factor affecting the US stock market in the coming week will be corporate earnings, which is particularly important considering the possibility of profit recession. However, judging from several banking stocks that took the lead last week, the performance has so far exceeded expectations.

　　In addition, the market is still concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May. Judging from the current market pricing, the final increase is a foregone conclusion. According to CME’s "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 21.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 78.5%. The probability of maintaining interest rates at the current level by June is 15.8%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 63.4%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 20.8%, and the probability of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

　　However, it is worth noting that there are continuous differences within the Fed. The directors believe that the effect of controlling inflation is minimal and it is necessary to continue to raise interest rates, while the chairman of the Chicago Fed calls for not being too radical. This shows that after the aggressive interest rate hike, officials are also concerned about inflation and economic prospects in the United States.

　　In terms of weekend news, US President Biden said on Friday that he has decided to run for re-election and will officially announce his campaign "soon". This means that it is possible that Biden will face Trump again next year.

　　G7 emphasizes the commitment to accelerate the phase-out of unreduced fossil fuels, and to achieve net zero emissions in the energy system by 2050 at the latest. The seven countries agreed on a $4 billion action plan for key minerals (down from the planned $7.5 billion).

　　On the enterprise side, Musk established an artificial intelligence (AI) company named X.AI in Nevada, USA, aiming to compete with Open AI, the development company of ChatGPT. Under the wave of AI, the technology madman is naturally unwilling to lag behind. The front foot is still criticizing ChatGPT, and the back foot has purchased 10,000 GPUs.

　　According to informed sources, Musk is forming a team of AI researchers and engineers. He also discussed the issue of investing in this new company with some investors from Tesla and SpaceX. These investors are very excited about this. Earlier this year, in response to the rapid development of Open AI, Musk began to explore the idea of setting up a company to compete with it.

　　[Market Review]

　　Last week, the S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.29% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%.

　　[One-week preview]

　　[Weekend Highlights]

　　Biden: I have decided to run for re-election and will officially announce it "soon"

　　According to CCTV news, last Friday, local time, US President Biden said that he had decided to run for re-election in the 2024 US presidential election and would announce his campaign as soon as possible.

　　US President Joe Biden said on Friday that he has decided to run for re-election and will officially announce his campaign "soon". "We will announce it relatively quickly. This trip to Ireland has made me more optimistic about what I can do, "Biden told reporters at the end of his trip to Ireland. "As I said, my plan is to run again."

　　It is reported that Biden’s close assistants and allies have privately launched actions to establish relevant deployment and fundraising mechanisms for the 2024 election campaign.

　　Sword finger ChatGPT Musk set up an artificial intelligence company to compete with Open AI.

　　It is reported that Musk established an artificial intelligence (AI) company named X.AI in Nevada, USA, aiming to compete with Open AI, the development company of ChatGPT.

　　According to informed sources, Musk is forming a team of AI researchers and engineers. He also discussed the issue of investing in this new company with some investors from Tesla and SpaceX. These investors are very excited about this. Earlier this year, in response to the rapid development of Open AI, Musk began to explore the idea of setting up a company to compete with it. For this new project, Musk has obtained thousands of high-performance GPU processors from NVIDIA.

　　OpenAI CEO: the scale of large language model is close to the limit, not the bigger the better.

　　Sam Altman, co-founder and CEO of OpenAI, talked about the development trend and security issues of Large Language Model (LLM) at MIT’s "Imagination Action" activity.

　　He believes that OpenAI is approaching the limit of LLM scale. The larger the scale, the better the model may be, but it may be just to pursue a number. The scale of LLM is no longer an important indicator to measure the quality of the model, and there will be more ways to improve the ability and utility of the model in the future.

　　Retail sales in the United States slowed down more than expected in March, falling 1% from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales hit a new low of nearly three years.

　　In March, retail sales in the United States decreased by 1% month-on-month, much worse than the expected growth rate of -0.4%, and the growth rate in February was revised from -0.4% to -0.2%. Retail sales only increased by 2.9% year-on-year, which is the lowest annual growth rate of retail sales since June 2020. Of the 13 categories, only 5 have increased. The "lag" of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, coupled with the impact of the banking crisis on spending, is beginning to emerge.

　　Differences within the Fed have intensified.

　　Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that recent data show that the Fed has not made much progress in the inflation target, and interest rates need to rise further. Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, said that after raising interest rates again, the Fed can suspend interest rate hikes and evaluate them.

　　US media: Apple will launch a number of new watchOS products in June or welcome major updates.

　　According to Interface News, on April 17th, reporter Mark Gurman wrote in his column PowerOn that the global developer conference that Apple will hold in June will be one of the most critical events in the company’s history-it will be an opportunity to herald the post-iPhone era and make its existing devices more attractive. Apple’s MR (Mixed Reality) head show will be the highlight of this conference, but other products will also be exhibited. It is reported that this includes the new Mac laptop and the biggest update to Apple Watch software since the first version was launched in 2015. Generally speaking, the company is planning to launch: Reality Head Show, Apple’s first major new product category in the past decade; New xrOS operating system and software development kit; New MacBook device; iOS17； iPadOS17； macOS14； watchOS10。 Among them, the updated versions of iOS and iPadOS are unlikely to provide major new features; The new Apple Watch operating system will bring greater improvements, including a new interface.

　　Musk: It is extremely difficult to achieve mass production and positive cash flow, and the car price is low enough to survive.

　　Musk wrote on Twitter on Thursday: "It is extremely difficult to achieve mass production and positive cash flow." The billionaire’s comments are a response to an old video shared by Twitter users. In that video, Musk said that in order to survive, the new company should be able to solve the problems of autonomous driving and electrification, and at the same time make a very "eye-catching" car and realize mass production, so that the cost of the car is low enough and the price does not exceed people’s affordability.

　　[financial calendar]

Due to the long shooting cycle, high cost and slow payment, more and more film and television drama employers began to focus on the newly emerging short drama industry.The expression style of its condensed narrative and the volume of fragments with an average of 10 minutes perfectly meet the demand of watching drama in today’s market.Each episode has an emotional climax and a hook that raises the audience’s expectations.Just as Zheng Zheng said: long drama is short drama. This argument is confirmed by the explosion of fire in Mo Yu Yun Jian.Nowadays, the audience has been suffering from the plot and meaningless waste scenes for a long time, preferring short plays with fast pace and strong emotions.

Although the short play gives people the first impression that it is earthy and awkward.However, since the integration with the long drama market, the short drama market has also begun to pay attention to scripts and costumes, and excellent works are frequent.The representative works that are out of the circle are "Ignorance", "False Face" and "Provoking".These are all popular with the story of arresting people and the beautiful narrative of camera language, and the box office is as high as 20 million.In fact, the shooting cycle and shooting cost of these dramas are far lower than those of long dramas.Therefore, the economic benefits created by short plays in the short term are by no means beyond the reach of long plays.In this way, it is normal for short plays to become the new direction of film and television development.

With the continuous development and improvement of the short drama industry,Young actors and little-known actors with trained background, online celebrity bloggers with millions of fans and love beans who failed in transformation all turned to short plays.The end result is also very good. A typical example is Daisy.Although she is an actress who made a long drama and has worked with many big fans, she is still in a tepid situation. After recognizing the present situation, Daisy resolutely turned to short plays and became the heroine. Now, her "Provoking" and "Writing" are both dramas with both popularity and reputation.

Although Daisy is not taken seriously in the long drama track, she is a beacon of countless scripts in the short drama market.You don’t have to shoot a long script to reflect the orthodox actor’s status. Today’s short plays have made great efforts in plot and costume, as long as the actors don’t pull their hips, they can definitely suck powder.For example, "We Embrace in the Dark" which is still in the hot broadcast period has attracted many viewers because of the CP sense and superb lens of the male and female hosts.Who knows that the coquettish operation of the man and his girlfriend dissuaded some drama powder during the live broadcast, which may affect the subsequent performance of the play to some extent.

Even before, the man who provoked didn’t get much bonus because the black material was exposed.Although the star-making ability of short plays is not as good as that of long plays, they still have the ability to let an actor get more job opportunities, and even have the opportunity to make a career in by going up one flight of stairs. Cheng Lei was discovered by the capital because of his outstanding performance in short plays, and now he can also play a long play.Even two short plays by Dr. He Xuanlin of Nortel were broadcast recently. Andy, her former classmate, is a hot flower in the entertainment circle, and Zoey, her former student, is also a minor celebrity in the past two years.

Most people have an impression of He Xuanlin, starting with Chen Xingxu and Landy Li’s Starring Stars Are Solidified into Sugar. He Xuanlin, with his superb acting skills and outstanding manners, perfectly shaped the noble and elegant corner of Qingkui.Although the protagonist of this drama is Landy Li and Chen Xingxu, but the discussion is relatively high when it is broadcast, it is the black and handsome wolf with two men and two women and the CP of the gentle and firm white rabbit.This drama may have awakened He Xuanlin’s love for acting to a certain extent. Although she is not dominant in terms of flow and age, her acting skills are definitely no problem.

No, two short plays starring He Xuanlin have been scheduled for broadcast recently. The first one is Love Sting.He Xuanlin’s role in the play is very complicated. On the surface, it is the imperial concubine to be married who comes from a foreign country to kiss, but behind the scenes, it is an assassin who does not hesitate to lie dormant to avenge his death.This setting alone means that if she wants to get together with the man, she must go through thousands of dangers, even the separation between heaven and man.Because the initial publicity funds were sufficient, the topic of a certain sound was read 300 million times, and it was even more like a video with a volume exceeding 100,000.

It can be seen that this kind of plot is quite popular in the sinking market. Although the values conveyed are controversial, the overall public opinion of the plot is not bad, and the audience are looking forward to the subsequent development of the plot and have the opportunity to usher in the explosion.The second part is Forever Night. Because this name is highly similar to several big production dramas, it is suspected of being hot. It caused dissatisfaction among some actors and fans.He Xuanlin plays Xie Jiagui’s daughter Xie Wanyin in the play, which is similar to the Princess Qingkui she played earlier.The later presentation effect is really not disappointing.

He Xuanlin skillfully shaped the corner of Xie Wanyin.Although He Xuanlin’s doctoral degree belongs to the type of learning hegemony among actors, and he has been a teacher of performance classes in colleges and universities for a long time, he resolutely chose to shoot short plays after knowing the current film and television environment.Although long plays are the general choice for the employment of trained actors, there is still much to be done according to the current development trend of short plays.. It is an inevitable trend for the development of film and television drama market in the future to make long plays short, short plays refined and concentrated narrative.Whether it is a short play or a long play, as long as the content is carefully done, it will always succeed.

Moreover, the satellite broadcast of the short play "Romantic Change" also proves that the broadcast mode of excellent audio-visual works can be adjusted appropriately.In order to implement the requirements of the State Administration of Radio and Television to further promote the distribution and dissemination of fine online dramas and encourage the emergence of more excellent online audio-visual works to be broadcast on TV stations in a standardized and orderly manner,Hunan State Administration of Radio, Film and Television actively promoted the satellite broadcast of "The Wind and Moon Change" and explored a new way for the development of fine network mini-dramas, such as "network backstage first" and "network broadcast+satellite TV joint broadcast". This indicates that the future development of the short drama industry will be more standardized.

In terms of actor selection and staff, many job choices can be provided. This is also a good work experience for young job seekers.As far as the current fast-paced life is concerned, an efficient and non-procrastinating plot can win the audience’s love, not to mention that the time of a short play is only ten minutes, and that person can refuse to watch an episode of short play during the break to relax. moreoverThe audience doesn’t care whether the plot is too big or not, as long as the broadcast plot can justify itself and provide emotional value for the audience.

In fact, whether it is a long play or a short play, the ultimate goal is to create excellent audio-visual works for the audience, and there is no distinction between high and low.

　　Cctv newsOn July 20th, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on the operation of agriculture and rural economy in the first half of the year.

　　At the meeting, Zeng Yande, chief agronomist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and director of the Development Planning Department, introduced that since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has made every effort to ensure the effective supply of "vegetable basket" products, focused on consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation, and made overall plans to do all kinds of work in agriculture and rural areas. The agricultural and rural economy has been steadily strengthened and stabilized, which has provided strong support for the stable development of the national economy and the sustained stability of the overall social situation. Mainly in the following seven aspects:

　　First,Summer grain output reached a record high.. Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has insisted on doing a good job in grain production as the primary task and the first responsibility. As soon as possible, it has broken down the annual grain production tasks to all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and formulated plans for stabilizing and increasing grain production by varieties and regions. First, the area, yield and total output have achieved "three increases". This year, the area of summer grain increased by 3.982 million mu, reversing the downward trend for five consecutive years. The yield per mu was 367.7 kilograms, which was increased for three consecutive years, and the output was 291.6 billion kilograms, an increase of 5.93 billion kilograms over the previous year, both hitting record highs. The second is continuous quality optimization. The area of high-quality special wheat accounted for 37.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous year. Third, the harvest loss is reduced. The yield of wheat machinery exceeded 98%, and the loss rate of wheat machinery in the main producing areas decreased by more than 1 percentage point. In addition, the early rice harvest is nearly 70%, which also shows a trend of increasing production. The area of autumn grain has increased and its growth is normal, which has laid a good foundation for the annual grain harvest.

　　Second,"Vegetable basket" products are in sufficient supply.. Strictly implement the overall responsibility of the province and the responsibility system of the mayor of the "vegetable basket", increase production guidance, strengthen the docking of production and marketing, and ensure a stable supply of the market. The production of live pigs has fully recovered. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of June, there were 45.64 million fertile sows in the country, equivalent to 102% at the end of 2017, and 439 million live pigs, recovering to 99.4% at the end of 2017. In the first half of the year, pork production was 27.15 million tons, up 35.9% year-on-year, and the supply and demand situation continued to improve. At the same time, the output of beef, mutton and poultry increased by 5.7%, the output of milk increased by 7.6% and the output of aquatic products increased by 4.4%. Vegetables and fruits are well supplied in the market, and prices fall seasonally.

　　Third,Agricultural green transformation continued to advance.. The promotion of "three products and one standard" in agricultural production was carried out in depth, and the three-year action of "controlling illegal drugs, controlling residues and promoting promotion" of edible agricultural products was solidly promoted, and the supply of green and high-quality agricultural products continued to increase. The qualified rate of agricultural products sampling was stable at over 97%, and the cumulative number of green, organic and geographical indication agricultural products reached 56,200. The "ten-year ban on fishing" in the Yangtze River started well, with more than 6,800 ships involved in fishing and 186,000 illegal nets cleared and banned. The management order of the ban on fishing was generally stable, and the fishermen who returned to catch basically realized the employment change and the social security policy was fully implemented. The quality construction and protection of cultivated land were further strengthened, and more than 72 million mu of black land conservation tillage in Northeast China was implemented, exceeding the annual target of more than 2 million mu.

　　Fourth,Rural industries have developed steadily.. Relying on agricultural and rural resources, we will extend the industrial chain, expand various functions of agriculture, and continuously promote the development of rural industries. In the first half of the year, 50 national modern agricultural industrial parks, 50 advantageous characteristic industrial clusters and 298 strong agricultural industrial towns were established. All localities have also increased investment, accelerated the development of industrial agglomeration, and developed "one township, one specialty" and "one village, one product" according to local conditions. The rural industry has shown a good development momentum. The added value of the national agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the average purchasing managers index (PMI) of the national key leading enterprises in agricultural industrialization was 55.3%, 4.2 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry. Rural leisure tourism has basically recovered to the same level in 2019, and online retail of agricultural products has maintained double-digit growth.

　　Fifth,Farmers’ income increased rapidly.. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs insists on ensuring stable production and supply, increasing employment and income, and taking various measures to increase farmers’ income. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of rural residents reached 9248 yuan, a real increase of 14.1% after deducting the price factor, which was 3.4 percentage points higher than the income growth rate of urban residents. The total number of migrant workers in rural areas and the income level have achieved double growth. The total number of migrant workers has reached 180 million, up 2.7% year-on-year, and the average monthly income has reached 4,290 yuan, up 17.6% year-on-year. At the same time, the characteristic industries in poverty-stricken areas have developed steadily, and the employment situation of poverty-stricken laborers is good, which has promoted more than 30.6 million people out of poverty to work. The income growth rate of poverty-stricken people continues to be higher than the national rural average.

　　Sixth,Investment, consumption and import and export increased rapidly.. The scale of agricultural investment expanded, and the investment in fixed assets in the primary industry was 656.4 billion yuan, up 21.3% year-on-year, which was 5 and 10.6 percentage points faster than that in the secondary and tertiary industries respectively. Rural consumption rebounded steadily, and the retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 2,780.7 billion yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4% in two years. The import and export of agricultural products grew rapidly, with the total import and export reaching US$ 146.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Among them, imports were US$ 108.11 billion, up 33.9% year-on-year, and exports were US$ 38.39 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year. The potential of domestic demand in rural areas has been continuously released, and its pulling effect on economic development has been continuously enhanced.

　　Seventh,Rural construction has been solidly promoted.. Formulate the implementation plan of rural construction action, and define the objectives, key tasks, working mechanism and policy guarantee of the 14 th Five-Year Plan. We have promoted the improvement of rural human settlements in an orderly manner, organized village cleaning actions, and made overall plans to promote rural toilet improvement, domestic sewage and garbage treatment, creating a number of beautiful and livable villages. At the same time, we will continue to deepen rural reform, steadily push forward the second round of land contract and extend the pilot project for 30 years after it expires, and complete the reform of the joint-stock cooperative system of collective operating assets in 530 thousand villages. Strengthen and improve rural governance and introduce the rural revitalization promotion law.

　　Generally speaking, the good situation of agricultural and rural economic development in the first half of the year laid a solid foundation for winning the bumper harvest of grain and agriculture throughout the year, and provided strong support for the "14 th Five-Year Plan" to make a good start. However, we should also see that the development of agricultural and rural economy still faces the threat of major pests and meteorological disasters, the risk of pig production market and epidemic situation, and the instability of international agricultural products market, which need to be solved by effective measures.

　　Zeng Yande said that in the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will resolutely implement the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, strengthen policies and measures, push forward stubble by stubble, pay close attention to implementation, ensure that the grain output will remain above 1.3 trillion Jin, resolutely hold the bottom line of preventing large-scale poverty return, and accomplish various goals and tasks of agricultural and rural development with high quality.

　　On March 31st, local time, US President Biden delivered a speech in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and announced a $2 trillion infrastructure plan. The eight-year plan is part of the Biden-Harris administration’s "Build Back Better" plan, which aims to rebuild the aging infrastructure in the United States, promote electric vehicles and clean energy, and create employment opportunities.

　　The infrastructure plan announced by Biden includes four major items: first, investing in transportation infrastructure and establishing an "elastic infrastructure" that can withstand weather disasters. The second is to transform and build more than 2 million sets of affordable housing and commercial real estate, replace all lead pipes and service cables in the country, and invest in universal broadband. The third is to improve the nursing economy, help the elderly and the disabled get affordable medical care, and expand the number of nursing staff. Invest in climate research and manufacturing. The fourth is to raise corporate tax to pay for the eight-year expenditure plan. Biden proposed to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% and the minimum tax rate for multinational corporations to 21%. (CCTV reporter Xu Wei)

　　　　　　　 Movie Network News(Photo/Qian Jia’s memoir/Xie Yawei) On August 16, the premiere of "The Informer" was held in Beijing, and director Lin Chaoxian starred Nicholas Tse, Zhang Jiahui, Gui Lunmei, Lu Yi, and Nursery. In the film, Nicholas Tse rarely acted in a "large-scale" scene of kissing with Gui Lunmei. Nicholas Tse, who once refused to shoot a kissing scene in order to take into account his wife Cecilia Cheung’s feelings, dared to kiss this time after his wife’s approval, while Zhang Jiahui, who is also a good husband, had to "hide" his wife Guan Yonghe in a passionate play, but he was faced with "settling accounts after autumn" after returning home. The film will be released nationwide on August 24.

Nicholas Tse was approved by his wife to kiss Gui Lunmei and "ridicule" the other party’s slow response

　　　　　　　 In the film, Nicholas Tse is a police officer. In "The Informer", in order to survive, he becomes an informant and falls in love with the girlfriend of the gang boss played by Gui Lunmei at first sight, embarking on a "desperate" journey. In the film, the two also have a passionate kiss scene. In order to take into account Cecilia Cheung’s feelings, Nicholas Tse refused to shoot a kiss scene with Big S, but Nicholas Tse in "The Informer" lost his "principles". When asked about this, Nicholas Tse quickly explained, "This is approved by my wife, and I can’t shoot without approval." When someone asked Cecilia Cheung what scale of passion scenes he would accept, Nicholas Tse, who listened to his wife’s words, obviously did not dare to talk nonsense and made decisions for his wife, "Then you should ask her."

　　　　　　　 Gui Lunmei, who plays the girlfriend of the gang boss in the film, has a great breakthrough for her, who has always shown her fresh temperament. "This is my first time doing an action scene, and there is a strong running scene that finally caused my thigh to become inflamed." At this time, Nicholas Tse "ridiculed" Gui Lunmei from the side. "She is very boyish, and she is not afraid of injury in action scenes. When she shoots for the first time, she does not blink her eyes. Later, I know that she should be slow to respond." Gui Lunmei, who was "exposed", admitted with a smile that she was indeed slow to react, and her brain could only keep up after a few seconds after the gunshot. When asked if she needed to report the kiss scene with Tse to her boyfriend Dai Liren, she said, "I don’t need to tell him, I only report to my parents."